So, if agreed, a de facto referendum it is and the SNP membership will decide whether it will be Westminster or Holyrood that will be used as the vehicle. I have already outlined my preference of Westminster. Where the Scottish people value their national Scottish Government they are less invested in Westminster rule and for all the positive stuff we could include in a Westminster manifesto we are never going to be in position to enact it. A Westminster manifesto with a clear statement that we as a nation desire to leave the place delivered directly to the next UK Government seems the most effective way to do this.
Once this is agreed it is imperative we turn our attention to how this will be won.
First thing to note is that we have done this already. At the 2015 General Election the combined votes of the SNP and the Greens came to 51.2%, enough to win a de facto Westminster referendum. We even achieved this at the last Holyrood election. The combined list vote for all parties that stood on an independence platform secured a small majority.
To improve on both of these results we need to campaign differently, strategically and with a new and enhanced type of focus.
In 2019 the SNP won 45% of the vote and the Greens won 1%. We therefore have to find another 4% of the vote over and above what was secured in 2019. Currently polling for independence is coming in at just over 50%. We should therefore go into this with confidence starting from the position that before the campaign properly starts we are already neck and neck.
We have to organise to maximise the vote, ensure that everyone who supports independence turns out to vote and take the case to those who are still open to persuasion. This won’t be a standard referendum and to secure that 50% plus we will need to create an entirely different approach to 2014 designed to fight a referendum in the context of a General Election.
At the last referendum there was a Yes campaign and people were invited to vote Yes when referendum day came around. This time round we will be asking people to vote SNP as a vote to secure independence and we must do everything possible to ensure that this simple endorsement isn’t confused or unnecessarily complicated.
Whether other independence parties stand will be a matter for them, though I suspect and anticipate they will, as is their right. It would be much more straight forward if all parties and groups came together and agreed that the SNP would be the ‘flag carriers’ for the independence vote. We are by far the biggest political party and it is the SNP that has the political, cultural and historic reach on the issue of independence. Other parties will have to come to their own judgement as to whether standing helps or hinders our prospects of winning.
As a very minimum any party that supports independence must be prepared to stand on a platform that a vote for them is also a vote exclusively for independence. What we will always have to bear in mind is that the UK Government will be looking for any excuse to disregard any victory and losing seats as a result of a split independence vote will be one that they will pick up with relish.
What we will need is a general Yes campaign designed and structured around a general election but which involves the whole movement and reaches out to civic Scotland. This body must be inclusive, consensual and community based.
I believe that following our conference we should call an Independence Convention and invite all parties that support independence, representatives of civic Scotland and campaigning organisations to come together to craft a campaign, structure an organisation and prepare materials and central messaging. A small executive committee should be elected and that body would provide the leadership and become the co-ordinating body for the campaign.
There is one thing that should underpin all of this. A code of conduct that ensures the highest possible standard of democratic engagement and outlines the basis of joint working. This must enshrine the principles of dignity, respect and equality. We can not go into another independence campaign when abuse is dished out to opponents and opprobrium heaped upon those who are comrades in the cause of independence. It is an opportunity for a clean slate and would allow all to come together in a joint endeavour putting aside any historic animosity. If parties or groups decide that this, for whatever reason, is a step beyond them they are more than entitled to campaign on their own and design their own campaign.
Where this ‘Independence Convention’ will be tasked with running the general independence campaign It will be the political parties that will be tasked to deliver the independence vote. This is a General Election and it will be political parties that will be contesting it. There should be no ‘Yes’ candidates. This is a referendum framed round a General Election and we can not do anything that confuses people or gets in the way of the usual means to engage or conflicts with the broader conventions and regulations around contesting elections.
The SNP should, though, be aligned as closely as possible with the new Independence Convention. We should use its offices and structure to conduct public meetings, engage with business organisations and organise the local campaigning. Working together we can make the best possible case to those who are still to be persuaded of the case for an independent Scotland.
This has never been done before and it we get our structures and organisation in place we can give this the best possible foundations to not just win this but to win it well. We probably have just over a year to get all this in place and we will have to move quickly when our special conference is concluded.
Our one job is to demonstrate to the UK and the wider world that the Scottish people want to be an independent country and have voted for that proposition democratically in a General Election. We have our nation to win and nothing can be more important than that.