Sunday 7 September, 2014
It has only gone and happened…
This morning we have the first credible opinion poll showing Yes ahead. This is a massive moment
and something we have all been hoping for if not praying to the indyref gods for.
It’s a small lead but a massive statement. If the referendum was to be held today Yes would win.
All over Scotland people involved in either campaign will be reading and rereading this dramatic
twist in the indyref saga. The poll is for YouGov and was commissioned by the Sunday Times but
most papers have it this morning. When the don’t knows are stripped out Yes leads No by 51% to
49%.
Where everybody is excited and celebrating the message is to keep focused and keep our feet
firmly on the ground. ‘Whatever the detail of this poll, it is just that – a poll,’ tweeted Nicola
Sturgeon. ‘It’s the vote on 18/9 that counts so let’s redouble our efforts and stay focused.’ I heard
late last night that this was on its way and I could hardly believe it. This morning I still don’t know
how we have got here.

Since the last debate we’ve noted a change in the campaign, a growing intensity in the Yes vote,
a new confidence and fortifying of those who support independence. The Yes case is beginning to
spread like wildfire amongst communities everywhere in Scotland through conversations, with
whole new cadres of Yes enthusiasts amongst the ordinary, predominately, working people of
Scotland emerging. This has gone largely undetected by the media but we’ve seen it building bit
by bit to the point where it is spilling out and overflowing. This is a campaign that now belongs to
the communities and people of Scotland and it has assumed a personality of its own.
All of a sudden, it feels like the metropolitan press and commentators have started to catch up
with what’s going on and there is a lot of talk of the union being on a ‘knife edge’ and it simply
being ‘too close to call’. In all the excitement another opinion poll goes barely unnoticed, it’s from
Panelbase, and almost ironically commissioned by Yes, and it shows us behind by four
percentage points. However, even here there is more comforting news, it shows the female vote,
where ‘Yes’ had lagged behind, once undecideds are stripped out, is almost equal at 47% and
48% respectively. The one main group that we have to convince are now becoming convinced of
our case.
The response from the Nos is almost immediate. The Chancellor, George Osborne, is on the Marr
show promising even more new powers, he even warbles something about a ‘devo-max’ offer.
This is quite extraordinary and has never been mentioned before. Then we have the Scottish
Secretary in another broadcast interview talking more of a ‘timetable’ rather than ‘more powers’
itself. Later in the afternoon it appears that this ‘more powers/devo-max’ offer is going to be
articulated by Gordon Brown.
‘Devo-max’ is all they have left. If they have sat round the table and hashed out a real devo-max
offer which includes all powers other than defence, foreign affairs and multilateral relations it
might just make a difference but I doubt very much this is what they are suggesting at all. The
scale of their panic is also demonstrated by the fact that so many of our fellow countrymen have
already voted by post. It has therefore been quite a day and you can almost sense the UK
establishment limbering up to get fully involved in the debate. It’s going to be some week.
Before we sign out there is a concern that this poll might just have come too early. The Nos will
now be energised knowing the scale of the task that now confronts them. There might also be a
bit of complacency on our side with many believing that it is won. What we really need now is
momentum. Another poll showing us ahead again then another showing us even further ahead.
We are now on the cusp of winning and the end of this campaign will be unlike anything we have
witnessed in Scottish political life.

Monday 8 September, 2014
Left early to get down to Westminster today and it is spooked. Westminster MPs took for granted
the repeated reassurance from the complacent group of Scottish Labour MPs. The House of
Commons thought that because there are only six SNP MPs out of the 59 MPs from Scotland that
this was some sort of true reflection of the public mood. Very few took a real interest in the
referendum with most showing signs of irritation or even boredom on the few occasions it has
been raised in the Commons.
They complacency meant they have failed to understand and appreciate what the debate has
been about and they have responded as a singular Westminster ‘establishment’ which only went
to alienate the Scottish people further.
Today the British House of Commons is effectively paralysed. We have some fun asking points of
order about these ‘more powers’ and if there will be a statement which only adds to the House’s
unease. My phone doesn’t stop ringing with metropolitan journalists wanting a quiet word and a
briefing about what’s going on. If London thought they were going to have a quiet indyref they
have had the illusion shattered now.
In the evening we find out what these ‘new powers’ are as articulated by Gordon Brown. Instead
of using this opportunity to redefine their offer we have nothing other than a timetable with
absolutely no ‘new powers’ on offer at all. Delivered from a miner’s club in Midlothian it is a
timetable that promises either a commitment or a bill to be delivered by Burns Night. In what is a
fantastic speech delivered with a compelling passion rarely seen from the former Chancellor he
hypes up this barren case as almost some sort of promised land.
The Nos still have a window to try and get on the front foot on this and I’m beginning to hear of all
sorts of things about the Nos going much further in defining what a No vote will mean.

Tuesday 9 September, 2014
Such is the absolute blind panic that has now descended on Westminster that we hear that all the
UK leaders will forsake Prime Minister’s Questions and journey up to Scotland instead to embark
on a day of campaigning. I raise a point of order in the House asking the Speaker when he was
notified of this change. He told me ‘in the last two hours’ nailing the lie that this was always
‘planned’. Westminster is in real peril of falling apart in panic and they are really going to have to
steady their nerves. I’m not sure that dispatching the UK leaders to Scotland will do the trick for
them though it will certainly lead to a lot more press attention for the No side. Going to be
fascinating tomorrow.